Financial News and Economical Crisis

volume of industrial production in 2009 decreased by 21,9%, said yesterday Goskomstat. Thus, the recession lasts for the second consecutive year (decline in 2008 amounted to 3,1%). A significant decline in industry was recorded only in 1992 and 1994 - by 26,4% and 27,3% respectively. This rate of decline was higher than expected by experts. In early 2009, they predicted the decline of 12-16%.

results of the industry in December of the second month in a row show positive indicators in comparison with the same period in 2008, but the growth rate decreased from 8,6% in November to 7.4% in December. Positive indicators recorded in the seven sectors, the highest - in metallurgy (27,3%) and wood (22.1%). However, none of the branches did not show positive results for the year. The smallest decrease recorded in the production of coke and oil refining (-3.2%), which is associated with high rates of incidence in 2008 - by 21,4%. In the food industry amounted to 6,1% decline because of declining real incomes.

were significantly worse performance of key sectors: industry (-26.6%) and engineering (-45.1%). “Improving the foreign economic situation, we felt at the beginning of semester II. To further improve the market conditions we expect in the I quarter of 2010. But long-term forecasts difficult to do, we do not even have an annual business plan. Erupted in the last two weeks, a sharp increase in metal prices and we are pleased and worries, “- said the deputy chairman of Mariupol metkombinata them. Illich Sergei Matvienko.

President Industrial Group UPEK Anatoly Hirschfeld in 2010 minimal growth in mechanical engineering at 2-3%. “We have good forecasts for rail transport, in the II half of it must go to pre-crisis figures. Also good prospects for machine tools and production of electrical products. In other sectors, such as agricultural engineering, the situation resembles the uneven pulse of the seriously ill,” - he said. Much worse situation in the chemical industry (decline in 2009 to 23,2%) - increase in prices for imported gas makes the Ukrainian chemical products uncompetitive before Russia”s companies.

In general, in 2010, experts expect industrial growth to 10%. Restore the demand for metal products and machinery will ensure the growth of industry at the level of 7-10% “, - analyst IK Concorde Capital Nikita Mikhailichenko. “The positive results affect the low base of comparison in 2009. Saving the world demand would achieve industrial growth within 5%, in the best case - up to 10%. To improve the situation can resume lending business, but most likely effect of this factor becomes noticeable only 2011 “, - says the Economist, Troika Dialog Ukraine Irina Piontkovskaya. Because of the recession in 2009 the volume of industrial production in Ukraine fell below the USSR. Increase over 1990 industry was able in 2006 - when he was 100,8%. Given the downturn in 2008-2009, now this figure had fallen to 84,1%. The modest expectations of economic growth this year would exceed the Soviet level only in 2011.

Yuri Panchenko

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