Quotations EUR /USD yesterday again have failed to move below the 1.38-x levels. It should be noted that the macroeconomic data, released in recent days, is generally not supported the American currency at the FX. These capital inflows, according to the U.S. Treasury for April TG, published Tuesday, showed the reduction of this figure at $ 53.2 billion against the growth of the index at $ 25 billion in the previous month. However, in this case, a characteristic to increase the inflow of investments in U.S. securities, including - in the UST, which, perhaps, reverse the foreign exchange market for the players rather negative statistics.
The May consumer price index in the United States amounted to -1.3% (g /g) against the average forecast, and its value in April, TG, equal, respectively, -0.9% and -0.7%. These statistics seem to have caused some, albeit relatively small increase in the price of futures on interest rates the Fed. Balance of Payments in America I Blvd. TG demonstrated the value of - $ 101.5 billion to - $ 85.0 billion expected by analysts, as the previous value of the index was revised to a decrease to -155.0 billion to - $ 132.8 billion previously. This statistic does not show on the spread of American mid-term trend of improving trade and payments performance, but in the coming days, in the absence of significant new market for macro-and microeconomic data, can have a negative impact on the course of American currency.
In the short term support for a possible course of EUR /CHF, formed under the influence of the outcome of today's session of SNB, as well as technical correction up developing capital markets may have a definite boost for quotes the single European currency to the dollar.
However, the medium-term risks of increasing exchange rate volatility and credit spreads seem relatively high. Against this backdrop, the continued devaluation of EUR /USD from current levels over the longer term is still possible.
Russian ruble to the USD and bivalyutnoy cart today to 10:30 Moscow time was 31.11 and 36.65 rubles. against, respectively, 31.13 and 36.59 rubles. morning bidding.
Technical factors, as well as increasing in recent weeks, the medium-term financial and economic risks are still significant opportunity to create a bear RUB course correction in the currency market in the coming months.
At the same time, factors of overall stabilization of global financial and commodity segments emerging in the II quarter of TG, is presented as a whole is still valid and will discourage the negative dynamics of the course the Russian currency.
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