VTB goes to SPO /rumors of a devaluation
Today, you can expect a positive market opening, will be the favorite stocks of Norilsk Nickel. Then, you can expect consolidation. The main event of the day will be the publication of preliminary data on U.S. GDP for the second quarter at 16.30 Moscow time. Expected -1.5%. Published information will determine the closing of the week and beyond the world's playgrounds.
Surgutneftegaz net profit in the last quarter was only 8.5 billion rubles., financial results for the first half - 77.3 billion rubles. The weak results for the second quarter are a direct consequence of the strengthening of the ruble, which depress the accumulation of foreign exchange companies. We continue to prefer to preferred shares of ordinary because of the high dividend yield securities data. Surgut - very good, but unfortunately opaque business. The company remains a leader in introducing high technologies in Russia Petroleum. However, because of the closure, we prefer companies - Rosneft and Lukoil.
VTB starts a new placement of its securities, the crisis hurts to hit the bank and it needs capital. The bank plans to place 10% of emissions abroad. The price of placement shares will be determined only at the end of August. The greater part of issue to redeem the Russian government, and the price of accommodation with a high probability will be higher than the market, in our view, about 5-6 cop. Yesterday, shares of the bank closed at 3.88 cop., The price of accommodation in 2007 - 13,6 cop. It will be recalled that earlier on the market rumor circulated that the price of accommodation is 1 cop. We belong to the cold stock savings and VTB because of anticipated problems with the credit portfolio of the fall. However, if our assumption about the placement will be just above the market, the market is certainly zadiskontiruet data rates. Therefore, for those willing to play roulette with the state can recommend speculative buying VTB shares at current levels.
In conclusion, it should be noted rumors emerged about a large-scale devaluation of the ruble fall, decline, according to people with an unbalanced mind, should amount to 50-100%. Naturally this will be primarily negative for the stock savings and VTB. However, it is worth recalling that the ruble is a direct consequence of the dynamics of oil prices, adjusted for the size of international reserves. With oil prices now no problems, and from our point of view, they will remain until the end of the year in the corridor of $ 60-80 per barrel. The international reserves of the Russian Federation as of July 24, 2009 amounted to 402.4 billion U.S. dollars to 398.1 billion U.S. dollars on 17 July 2009. Accordingly, any conditions for a devaluation in the current situation does not exist. We also expect a gradual return of foreign investors in the Russian economy.
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